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Rivian is losing $32,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is non-zero. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability.
Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. Most importantly, Rivian leadership must learn from these moments and not repeat the same mistakes. Rivian leadership has once again allowed an unexpected event — a supplier shortage for their enduro motor — to materially effect a quarter’s performance.
Rivian has made it abundantly clear having a vertical architecture, where they own and build everything they reasonably can, is the only way their vision can be executed. This approach has been validated by the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, which has commited to using their underlying operating system to power vehicles in their portfolio. Rivian’s new Tri-Motor configuration gives the best Rivian currently has to offer, which needs to impressive the least cost-conscious buyers.
Rivian is losing $39,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is non-zero. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is becoming very unlikely. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. The team is making progress on R2, 85% sourced, keeping the R2 timeline on schedule. Rivian released a software service, Connect+, which allows them to have a high margin revenue stream, albeit, small revenue stream now.
Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. Rivian leadership has once again allowed an unexpected event — a supplier shortage for their enduro motor — to materially effect a quarter’s performance. It is getting confusing now. Not only are they having a supply shortage, but they are citing a “challenging consumer backdrop” may cause a downtrend in demand. It is unclear which will/was the main driver in demand.
Rivian is losing $39,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is becoming very unlikely. It is clear the current administration does not view furthering electric vehicles in the United States as a goal. No immediate impact on earnings is present right now. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. The team is making progress on R2, 85% sourced, keeping the R2 timeline on schedule. Rivian released a software service, Connect+, which allows them to have a high margin revenue stream, albeit, small revenue stream now.
Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. Rivian leadership has once again allowed an unexpected event — a supplier shortage for their enduro motor — to materially effect a quarter’s performance. It is getting confusing now. Not only are they having a supply shortage, but they are citing a “challenging consumer backdrop” may cause a downtrend in demand. It is unclear which will/was the main driver in demand. To lose the EV tax credits would in fact make the demand environment more challenging, since the demand curve for EVs might not be as strong.
Rivian is losing $39,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is becoming very unlikely. It is clear the current administration does not view furthering electric vehicles in the United States as a goal. No immediate impact on earnings is present right now. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. The team is making progress on R2, 85% sourced, keeping the R2 timeline on schedule. Rivian released a software service, Connect+, which allows them to have a high margin revenue stream, albeit, small revenue stream now. Rivian must hit a gross profit in Q4 as promised.
Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. Rivian leadership has once again allowed an unexpected event — a supplier shortage for their enduro motor — to materially effect a quarter’s performance. It is getting confusing now. Not only are they having a supply shortage, but they are citing a “challenging consumer backdrop” may cause a downtrend in demand. It is unclear which will/was the main driver in demand. To lose the EV tax credits would in fact make the demand environment more challenging, since the demand curve for EVs might not be as strong.
Rivian is losing $10,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. Potential for a massive dilution event in the near term (1-3 years) is becoming very unlikely. A $6 billion Department of Energy loan has been closed to build a second plant in Georgia. Rivian received $260 million in regulatory credits in Q4 alone. This is pure gross profit since it is applied on top of automobile revenue. It is clear the current administration does not view furthering electric vehicles in the United States as a goal. No immediate impact on earnings is present right now. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. The deliveries of the R1T and R1S have very little meaning. Their only purpose is to show an increase of profitability per car. The team is making progress on R2, 85% sourced, keeping the R2 timeline on schedule. Rivian released a software service, Connect+, which allows them to have a high margin revenue stream, albeit, small revenue stream now. Rivian must hit a gross profit in Q4 as promised. Gross profit achieved.
Rivian brand is loved. Hearing the word “Rivian” is now associated with family-oriented adventure. Rivian’s level 3 chargers have top tier reliability, only comparable to Tesla’s super chargers. Rivian’s market penetration for the segments they are in are enviable. Rivian’s support and service infrastructure is not mass market ready. slowly becoming mass market ready. Rivian has some of the lowest reliability ratings, but some of the highest satisfaction scores and re-purchasing intent percentages. Non Rivian drivers can now use select Rivian level 3 chargers.
Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. To lose the EV tax credits would in fact make the demand environment more challenging, since the demand curve for EVs might not be as strong. Management must believe the environment will be tough since the delivery estimate for 2025 is below 2024’s deliveries.
Rivian has made it abundantly clear having a vertical architecture, where they own and build everything they reasonably can, is the only way their vision can be executed. This approach has been validated by the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, which has commited to using their underlying operating system to power vehicles in their portfolio. The Joint Venture’s total value has been raised $800 million to $5.8 billion. Rivian’s new Tri-Motor configuration gives the best Rivian currently has to offer, which needs to impressive the least cost-conscious buyers.
No change in story
Rivian is losing $10,000 per vehicle. Total cash is trending down. A $6 billion Department of Energy loan has been closed to build a second plant in Georgia. Rivian received $260 million in regulatory credits in Q4 alone. This is pure gross profit since it is applied on top of automobile revenue. It is clear the current administration does not view furthering electric vehicles in the United States as a goal. No immediate impact on earnings is present right now. 2026 is the year of gross profitability. 2027 is the year of EBITDA break even. 2028 is the year of global expansion. If successful, the Tri-Motor has the potential to increase the average selling price (ASP), furthering the gap to gross profitability. Rivian will not confirm or indicate the amount of pre orders for R2, except an initial stat of over 100k+ pre-orders shortly after the announcement event. R2 must come out in the first half of 2026. The deliveries of the R1T and R1S have very little meaning. Their only purpose is to show an increase of profitability per car. Gross profit achieved. Tariffs will not decrease cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) of the vehicle, only increase. Therefore, margins might get worse. The only upside is Rivian is an American company, making them less likely to be targeted in current/future tariffs.
Rivian is showing serious signs of cost reductions, losing only $7,500 per vehicle, representing more than a $20,000+ cost reduction from Q1 2024. Joint Venture is providing much needed capital, having the total available cash go up. Regulatory credits are providing the pure gross profit needed to hit the $1 billion milestone of 2 positive gross profit quarters in a row. R2 schedule is on track, including a supplier park being built. Tri-Motor configurations are in fact increasing ASP in the quarter. Per unit impact from tariffs are a "couple thousand dollars".
Rivian brand is loved. Hearing the word “Rivian” is now associated with family-oriented adventure. Rivian’s level 3 chargers have top tier reliability, only comparable to Tesla’s super chargers. Rivian’s market penetration for the segments they are in are enviable. R1S is best selling SUV in United States over 70k. R1S best selling SUV over 50k in California. Rivian’s support and service infrastructure is slowly becoming mass market ready. Rivian has some of the lowest reliability ratings, but some of the highest satisfaction scores and re-purchasing intent percentages. Non Rivian drivers can now use select Rivian level 3 chargers.
R2 is still on track for early 2026. Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. To lose the EV tax credits would in fact make the demand environment more challenging, since the demand curve for EVs might not be as strong. Management must believe the environment will be tough since the delivery estimate for 2025 is below 2024’s deliveries.
Rivian AI overhauled using vertical architecture and data flywheel. Data flywheel = no manual rule making, data is provided and models are run on the data automatically. Rivian has made it abundantly clear having a vertical architecture, where they own and build everything they reasonably can, is the only way their vision can be executed. This approach has been validated by the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, which has commited to using their underlying operating system to power vehicles in their portfolio. The Joint Venture’s total value has been raised $800 million to $5.8 billion. Rivian’s new Tri-Motor configuration gives the best Rivian currently has to offer, which needs to impressive the least cost-conscious buyers.
No change in story
Rivian is showing serious signs of cost reductions, losing only $7,500 per vehicle, representing more than a $20,000+ cost reduction from Q1 2024. Joint Venture is providing much needed capital, having the total available cash go up. Regulatory credits are providing the pure gross profit needed to hit the $1 billion milestone of 2 positive gross profit quarters in a row. R2 schedule is on track, including a supplier park being built. Tri-Motor configurations are in fact increasing ASP in the quarter. Per unit impact from tariffs are a "couple thousand dollars". Rivian has most likely lost all regulatory credits. Without these credits, the ability to reach gross profitability becomes doubtful.
Software & Services is no longer something to ignore, especially with 35%+ gross profits. Rivian is showing serious signs of cost reductions, losing only $7,500 $31,000 per vehicle. representing more than a $20,000+ cost reduction from Q1 2024. Joint Venture is providing much needed capital, having the total available cash go up. Regulatory credits are providing the pure gross profit needed to hit the $1 billion milestone of 2 positive gross profit quarters in a row. R2 schedule is on track, including a supplier park being built. Tri-Motor configurations are in fact increasing ASP in the quarter. Per unit impact from tariffs are a "couple thousand dollars". Rivian has most likely lost all regulatory credits. Without these credits, the ability to reach gross profitability becomes doubtful. The question now becomes: is it even possible they can get the gross profit per vehicle further down, or was last quarter just a one-off?
Quad motor version of the R1T and R1S are not available. Rivian partnered with Google to provide Google maps, instead of Rivian's proprietary software. This is a major plus for customers, since Rivian's maps were not well received by drivers. Rivian brand is loved. Hearing the word “Rivian” is now associated with family-oriented adventure. Rivian’s level 3 chargers have top tier reliability, only comparable to Tesla’s super chargers. R1S is best selling SUV in United States over 70k. R1S best selling SUV over 50k in California. Rivian’s support and service infrastructure is slowly becoming mass market ready. Rivian has some of the lowest reliability ratings, but some of the highest satisfaction scores and re-purchasing intent percentages. Non Rivian drivers can now use select Rivian level 3 chargers.
It seems like there is a new "issue" each earnings release. It is up to the investor to determine if each of these issues are one-offs, or management simply cannot handle the job in front of them. R2 is still on track for early 2026. Paint shop in Normal plant is complete. Along with required tooling upgrade for R2. Rivian has experienced multiple once-in-a-generation events during the very start of its inception. The construction of its first plant in Normal, Illinois occurred during Covid. One of the largest semiconductor/automobile supply chain crisis began shortly after. This led to their contracts with suppliers to be comically negative. Rivian needs to rectify these negative symptoms. To lose the EV tax credits would in fact make the demand environment more challenging, since the demand curve for EVs might not be as strong. Management must believe the environment will be tough since the delivery estimate for 2025 is below 2024’s deliveries. Management cannot seem to give good news. They give off the impression it is an extremely difficult environment they are working with right now.
Autonomy & AI day is set for December 2025. Rivian AI overhauled using vertical architecture and data flywheel. Data flywheel = no manual rule making, data is provided and models are run on the data automatically. Rivian has made it abundantly clear having a vertical architecture, where they own and build everything they reasonably can, is the only way their vision can be executed. This approach has been validated by the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, which has commited to using their underlying operating system to power vehicles in their portfolio. The Joint Venture’s total value has been raised $800 million to $5.8 billion. Rivian’s new Tri-Motor configuration gives the best Rivian currently has to offer, which needs to impressive the least cost-conscious buyers.
No change in story
Disclaimer: All previous posts were written backward-looking. This means the following event had already occurred when it was written. This is the first post that is future looking, without any bias of foresight.
With that being said, this is by far one of, if not the most, significant earnings release of Rivian's history.
The tariffs and the negative EV discourse have rightfully made analyst assumptions negative. Rivian management has not helped this either, with no stable COGS or gross profit trend. R2 is "on track", but still nothing concrete. In fact, management is running out of time. Before the R2 launches, an online configurator needs to launch so reservation holders can start the ordering process. The current assumption is that this will be at least 1 month before vehicles will be delivered, condensing the timeline to only a few months left. Autonomy & AI are announced but barely expanded upon in calls. The demand for EV's, noted by monthly reports from brands like Ford, is slowing down this quarter after the $7,500 EV credit got removed. Analysts in their research reports are pricing in this does not rebound to what Rivian hopes it might, leaving a permanent reduction in demand.
For example, Morgan Stanley is pricing in a total of 52.1k deliveries in 2026. But Rivian has delivered around 25k-30k EDVs (Amazon vans). They need to deliver 100k by 2030. So assuming they have the end of 2030, that is 5 years to deliver 70k vans. That is 15k a year. So 51k - 15k just for EDVs. That is 36k left. If they only deliver 15k R1s in 2026 (which would be a substantial drop), that leaves 36k - 15k = 21k left. So assuming a massive > 30-40+% drop in R1 deliveries in 2026, Morgan Stanley is assuming there will only be around 20k R2s sold in 2026. This would imply there are less R2s sold in the United States in 2026 than R1's which are priced close to 100k.
Outside factors that analysts are not pricing in include Tesla's year with the most Model Y's and Model 3's deliveries was 2023. Therefore, any standard 36 month would be up in 2026. And since there is no EV tax credit, it might cause an existing Tesla customer to choose a different vehicle since if they re-leased the same vehicle, it would be $100-$300 more expensive per month for the same configuration. A second factor is the LA Auto Show is coming up later in November 2025, which is where the original R1 vehicles were introduced. Could this be when Rivian decides it is appropriate to unveil something major for R2?
Lastly, the analysts themselves have shifted their own stories. Originally, it was about mass adoption of the R2. Just like Tesla Model S and Model X, the Rivian R1T and R1S are simply the vehicles to get you to the real business. However, this is no longer the case. With the negative sentiment around EV's and the tariffs in place, analysts are taking a short term view, making the production, deliveries, and demand for the R1T and R1S their main focus. In other words, analysts are not seeing Rivian as a technology company with a long term growth story that sees technology like margins over time, but simply a car company that sells top of the line EVs. From what analysts write, until otherwise noted, the Joint Venture with Volkswagen is simply a means to capital, not a pathway to more software and services revenue.
So the main question an investor needs to answer from the Q3 2025 Earnings call is: Are the analysts projecting an overly-pessimistic bear case disguised as a base case, or is their guidance truly warranted?
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